ARC: Connections: ELMAR: Posting

areas: methods: content

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Dear All,

A structured use of analogies has been shown to be useful for forecasting what will happen in complex situations (Green and Armstrong 2007). What predictions does the structured analogies approach make about the outcome of the current alarm about manmade global warming?

If you can think of situations from the past that were similar to the current global warming alarm, I’d be grateful if you would complete a copy the questionnaire at http://kestencgreen.com/q-analogies-for-agw.doc and send it back to me. If you know of other people who might be able to help, feel free to pass this message on. We’ll be presenting the findings at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Hong Kong.

Kesten

Dr Kesten C Green
Business & Economic Forecasting Unit
Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
Contact: T: +64 4 976 3245; M +64 21 456 516; F: +64 4 976 3250
PO Box 10800, Wellington 6143, New Zealand
conflictforecasting.com & forecastingprinciples.com

Reference

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 365-376. Available in full text at http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/files/pdf/INTFOR3581_Publication15.pdf

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